#Updated 29 Jan 2019
Raids 101-300 are here
Raids 301-500 are here
TL;DR (with updated numbers):
Verifying whether raid tiles are random when color stacking.
Current games seen: 500
Current tiles seen: 17,500
Probability of drawing tiles of stacked-into color: 20.02%
95% Confidence interval: 19.4% to 20.6%
Conclusion: Looking completely fair
Detail:
The question of whether SGG adjusts tile probabilities against color stackers in raids is a very common debate on the forum. What there isn’t much of is data.
What exists is here:
And they make two very contradictory findings. What neither poster has done, however, is open their data to examination. We have to take their word for the methodology and conclusions. That’s a tough pill to swallow when the claims are so contradictory.
I’ve started collecting data myself, and I’m going to publish it openly on here so the forum at large can slice and dice it as they see fit. Currently, I’m at 3500 tiles seen, which is 100 raids. I’m doing a 3/2 color stack, so 3 of one color, and 2 of another. I vary which colors I pick depending on the target, but it’s always 3/2.
The results couldn’t look much fairer. The 95% confidence interval is broad enough that there still might be a very mild negative bias. But it’s not looking likely. More data to come.
Data:
Team | Red | Green | Blue | Yellow | Purple | Tile Count | Tiles 1st color | Tiles 2nd color |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 y 2 P | 11 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 6 | 5 |
3 y 2 p | 9 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 7 |
3 y 2 p | 8 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 9 | 9 |
3 p 2 r | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 35 | 3 | 5 |
3 r 2 p | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 5 | 9 |
3 r 2 y | 6 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 6 | 5 |
3 y 2 p | 6 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 5 | 8 |
3 b 2 r | 9 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 35 | 8 | 9 |
3 b 2 y | 6 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 35 | 9 | 11 |
3 r 2 b | 7 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 10 |
3 r 2 b | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 7 |
3 r 2 b | 7 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4 |
3 r 2 b | 7 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 10 |
3 b 2 p | 12 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 4 | 5 |
3 y 2 p | 5 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 9 | 7 |
3 b 2 y | 9 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 9 | 3 |
3 b 2 y | 7 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 35 | 6 | 11 |
3 r 2 p | 10 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 10 | 7 |
3 b 2 r | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 7 |
3 r 2 p | 4 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 35 | 4 | 6 |
3 r 2 p | 8 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 8 | 7 |
3 y 2 p | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 3 | 1 |
3 r 2 y | 9 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 9 | 10 |
3 b 2 y | 5 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 10 | 6 |
3 y 2 r | 8 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 3 | 8 |
3 y 2 p | 7 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 6 | 6 |
3 y 2 p | 7 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 6 | 6 |
3 r 2 b | 7 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5 |
3 r 2 y | 8 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 8 | 5 |
3 r 2 b | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 5 | 9 |
3 r 2 p | 3 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 3 | 11 |
3 r 2 p | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 8 | 7 |
3 y 2 r | 7 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 6 | 7 |
3 y 2 r | 10 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 10 |
3 r 2 y | 6 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 6 | 7 |
3 g 2 r | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 8 | 6 |
3 b 2 p | 7 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 9 | 8 |
3 b 2 g | 9 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 3 |
3 y 2 p | 11 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 5 | 10 |
3 r 2 p | 4 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 4 | 9 |
3 r 2 b | 6 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 6 | 11 |
3 y 2 r | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 7 |
3 y 2 p | 13 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 6 | 5 |
3 y 2 p | 8 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 8 | 6 |
3 r 2 b | 8 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 8 | 6 |
3 r 2 y | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 5 |
3 b 2 r | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 7 |
3 b 2 r | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 6 |
3 b 2 p | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 6 | 12 |
3 r 2 b | 6 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 6 | 10 |
3 y 2 r | 8 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 35 | 11 | 8 |
3 y 2 b | 5 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 4 | 6 |
3 b 2 p | 10 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 35 | 5 | 7 |
3 b 2 y | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 35 | 9 | 11 |
3 b 2 y | 9 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 8 | 6 |
3 b 2 y | 7 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 35 | 5 | 9 |
3 b 2 y | 10 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 5 | 5 |
3 b 2 r | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 6 |
3 y 2 r | 5 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 5 |
3 y 2 p | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 6 | 10 |
3 r 2 p | 10 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 10 | 8 |
3 b 2 y | 13 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 4 | 6 |
3 y 2 p | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 9 |
3 r 2 p | 12 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 12 | 6 |
3 r 2 b | 6 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 6 | 9 |
3 y 2 b | 9 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 6 |
3 y 2 b | 8 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 5 | 5 |
3 b 2 p | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 35 | 9 | 4 |
3 b 2 p | 7 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 6 | 6 |
3 b 2 p | 7 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 9 |
3 b 2 y | 6 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 35 | 9 | 7 |
3 b 2 y | 6 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 5 | 2 |
3 r 2 y | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 9 | 3 |
3 b 2 y | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 8 | 7 |
3 b 2 r | 9 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 35 | 5 | 9 |
3 r 2 y | 11 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 11 | 7 |
3 p 2 b | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 35 | 11 | 6 |
3 y 2 r | 7 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 7 |
3 p 2 b | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 9 |
3 y 2 r | 1 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 11 | 1 |
3 b 2 r | 9 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 5 | 9 |
3 r 2 p | 9 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 9 | 7 |
3 r 2 p | 5 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 35 | 5 | 11 |
3 y 2 r | 8 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 35 | 10 | 8 |
3 b 2 p | 6 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 5 |
3 b 2 p | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 35 | 5 | 10 |
3 r 2 b | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 35 | 9 | 8 |
3 b 2 p | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 2 |
3 r 2 y | 5 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 5 | 7 |
3 r 2 g | 12 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 6 |
3 r 2 b | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5 |
3 b 2 r | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 6 |
3 r 2 p | 7 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 6 |
3 r 2 b | 7 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 10 |
3 r 2 y | 6 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 35 | 6 | 10 |
3 b 2 p | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 9 | 6 |
3 b 2 r | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 5 |
3 r 2 b | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 35 | 7 | 9 |
3 b 2 y | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 35 | 8 | 7 |
3 b 2 p | 8 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 5 |
728 | 694 | 710 | 672 | 696 | 3500 | 707 | 702 | |
Est % | 20.80% | 19.83% | 20.29% | 19.20% | 19.89% | 20.20% | 20.06% | |
Est Tiles | 7.28 | 6.94 | 7.10 | 6.72 | 6.96 | 7.07 | 7.02 |