Four 5 stars heroes in 30 pulls?!
The team score is only one part of the equation. Strategy and luck of the tiles also play a part. In raids and revenge, I regularly beat teams with higher scores, because I look at which heroes they have and play to my strengths and their weaknesses. But sometimes I lose to weaker teams too, just because of not having tiles where I need them.
We now know there is a 1.3% chance of pulling HOTM.
Probability across 33 pulls = 1 - (1 - .013)^33 = 1 - (.987)^33) = 1 - .649 = .351 =
35.1% chance of pulling at least one HOTM with 33 pulls.
Feel free to check my formula and math if you’re a prob and stat guru. It’s been 30+ years since my last math class but I feel pretty confident this is correct.
If you want to compute percentage for another # of pulls it would be (1 - (.987^#ofpulls))/100.
10x pull is 12.3%
100 pulls is 73%
200 pulls is 92.7%
300 pulls is 98.1%