10 Pull Elemental And Epic duplicating too much

I recently did a ten pull on Dark Elemental. I got 3 of one character and 4 of another and 3 different. 7 of my pulls were of the same 2 characters. I understand the chance of a character duplicating but when the duplication takes half or the majority of your character poll this seems to be issue. Is this happening across the board?

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Yes, there are only so many characters of each color so you can get multiples

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Yes… There Is (5) 3* characters (4) 4* & (5) 5*
Totaling counting 14 Dark Characters adding the monthly for November.
My pull this morning 3 Sabina, 4 Thrum, Balthazar, Oberon, Ricard. This Is way above the percentage of duplicating. Considering my first 4 pulls characters were Sabina Tyrum Sabina Tyrum Balthazar Tyron Renfeld Oberon Tyrum Sabina. This Is only 5 of the possible 14 total character base. This seem to me based on percentage that I should not have had more than one or two duplicates on a single pole to have three of one and four of the other means that their percentage algorithm need some tweaking.

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Factor in that a 5* is less than 4% chance, 4* is less than 18% chance. You pulled 40% 4*s I’d say you did extremely well

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Yes I would agree. Just don’t have a large character base yet . So looking at that way I would like to have more of a variety to choose and upgrade would have been nice.

Recently I did four 10 pulls 3 from elemental back to back and I received 30/3*. I decided to try epic with a 10 pull I received 7/3* and 3 Rigards. This is not luck of the draw. This is pure rip off.
My tc 20 won’t produce anything more than 3*. How does one keep from getting so frustrated with this game that they don’t quit? I hear a lot of people saying the same thing they are ready to quit. Not putting anymore money in.

Kiaya

After months of studying and taking average I’ve collected over 60 5* almost all the 4* in just over a year… What I learned was not to do them in a row. Also change up the sequence of the draws. Don’t let it just run. After I see 3 3* in a row I tap the screen twice and charge the rotation way better luck for me and timing is critical also. I’m in the NorthWest and found better times to do pulls with better luck. Its worked for me.

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I have the same issue, I did the 10 pull that included Arthurian Heroes as a possibility. I did the 10 pull twice, within a day of each other. The first time I did not get any of the Arthurian Heroes, the second 10 pull, I got not 1, not 2 but 3 Lancelots? According to these special summons, the chances of getting an epic heroes is 3.2% but to get 3 Lancelots in a row? That’s ridiculous, not to mention statistically highly improbable. It makes me think that algorhythms for hero selection are completely out of whack and it’s very suspect. Definitely, I have zero desire to pay for this game for being completely off base on how it rewards heroes.

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Thank you for your reply. I will try a different method next time. However I will not purchase anymore gems.

Believe it or not, it isn’t that improbable. 3 Lancelot in 20 pulls will happen about 2% of the time, given the published odds. That’s rare, but not crazy rare.

Stastiically, I’m going to assume drawing for 1 Lancelot as an independent variable, so basic statististics dictates that 3 independent events happening (exactly drawing 3 lancelets from 20 pulls) is 20 times ( 3.5% x 3.5% x 3.5%) = 20 ( 0.035 x 0.035 x 0.035) = 20 x 0.0000428 or 0.08% chance or 8 in 10,000 of that occurring, so not sure where you get your 2% number. My point is, if game devs were using actual statistics, drawing 3 Lancelots (or any similar hero for that matter, at a given low percent) should be pretty darn improbably, e.g. 8 in 10,0000.

@acslayer You’re not accounting for the fact that the 3 Lancelots can occur in different positions in the draw sequence, and that these are each independent ways to achieve 3 Lancelots. They all need to be summed to get the true probability of getting 3 Lancelots in 20 pulls.

The math is:

Probability=(0.968^17)*(0.032^3)*choose(20,3)

There are (20 * 19 * 18)/(3 * 2 * 1) ways that you can pick 3 places out of 20 draws for your 3 Lancelots to appear.

(0.968^17)(0.032^3) (20 * 19 * 18)/(3 * 2 * 1) =0.02 (with rounding)

Actually, my math is wrong too, because Merlin is also a 4*, so the chance of getting Lance on a single draw is 1.6%, not 3.2%.

So the correct probability is 0.4%, or 4 times in every 1000 attempts. Rarer, but still by no means an impossible draw.

The chances of drawing 3 Lancelots still 4 in 1000 and is still highly unlikely however you want to describe it, and questions how game devs are actually setting up their algorhythm for these so-called random draws.

If 200,000 people do 20 pulls, then we’d expect 800 of them to get 3 Lancelot (on average). There are apparently 1.2M daily users of E&P. So I’m willing to bet that at least 200,000 people did 20 or more pulls.

Why, then, do you find it surprising or suspicious that one of those 800 people decided to come on the forums and post about it?

If you read my original post you would understand. Take number of hero’s, cost of gems and the likely hood of doubling, even tripling just one hero is frustrating giving the odds. Most just complain in GC. Those who take the time to post just would like to see more variety which I have noticed since I started over a year ago.

I did read your original post. And I got 5 Evelyns in my Avalon pulls this month, along with 3 Lancelots, 2 Merlins, and zero 5* (although I did a lot more than 20 pulls). So I feel your pain. It’s not fun seeing that many of the same hero.

My point was that it’s not a surprising or suspicious outcome given the published probabilities. In other words, I don’t believe it’s a bug. But I too wish it happened less often.

Very true. I have noticed after doing many of 10 and 30 pulls I’ve never have had that situation happen again… knock on wood. Thank you for sharing

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I did 2 Avalon 10 pulls, on the first day I got 10 - 3* and surprise that kept me from throwing Ipad across the room - Evelyn as bonus.
Just before Avalon finished I did second 10 pull, 5 - 3*, Gormek , (which I wanted) and then 4 - yes FOUR Lancelots. I guess it was an end of event close-out sale on Lancelots. I really wanted Merlin, I have one fully maxed and was hoping for another. I did want Lancelot, but 4? :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

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I got 2 Lancelot and 1 Merlin in my first 10x pull. :slight_smile:

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