10% chance for 4* Epic Troop – Inaccurate or Possible Bug?

SG has posted the odds of getting an Epic troop as 10%. I am questioning the accuracy of this claim, based on my experience listed below and would love to hear from other players.

Before starting to keep a written record, I estimate between 20 and 30 tokens, all resulting in 3*s. This abysmal result caused me to start tracking actual results.

Currently I have used 13 tokens, all 3 *s.

While I recognize this is not a large sample, it does suggest that either 1. I have been horribly unlucky, 2. The 10% posted chance is inaccurate, 3. That the results from 10 pulls and 10 single pulls are different, but not disclosed to the player 4. There is something else in play that I am not factoring in.

I don’t know the answer. I also don’t know when SG last reviewed the odds and whether any revision may have had unintended consequences.

AND PLEASE, NO RANTS AGAINST SG. PLEASE BE COURTEOUS IN YOUR RESPONSES.

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I am sorry about your luck. My brother is in the same boat as you. Personally, the odds have been in my favor.

If we change topics to tc20, I can really sympathize!

Your sample size is far too small to draw any conclusions. Based on playing for over a year, it feels like about 10%, but I haven’t been counting - so can’t support this

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I was doing some searching to see if there was an existing data project you could contribute to, and I’m not certain that there is. That said, I found some threads that may at least be worth checking out.

Both this thread and this thread were started by @_John_Doe, so I feel it may be wise to tag them here, get their attention, and ask them if they know of a data collection project on this. It would not surprise me at all if they already have something in the works.

However, whatever data you contribute, I have to say that your estimate of 20-30 tokens (all 3 stars) needs to be disregarded entirely. Not because of the sample size, or the lack of complete precision. But because of sample selection bias. That is, of course you got no four stars and then made this post. Had you gotten a few in that run, you would NOT have made this post. I have never read a post from someone who got a handful of four star troops in a few pulls and questioned the published odds, speculating if they may actually be higher. I don’t want to be a jerk about this, but if you don’t understand why that part of your sample is completely valid, that’s fine; I would strongly urge you to keep a meticulous log FROM THIS POINT ON ONLY, and then just publish that data.

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150 epic troop pulls and 10 4* troops for me.

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Hi, all. I am no mathematician or statistician; but from the limited knowledge I still retain from grade 12 advanced math, my understanding is that 10% chance DOES NOT mean if you pull 10 times, you are guaranteed 1 case of success (although that is what it looks like on the surface). The success rate does not accumulate. So each pull stands on its own and is not affected by the previous pull(s). No amount of pulls can guarantee a case of success.

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Much alike. I probably summoned 30-40 times and got all 3*.

started playing, i think at 28th august 2018.

until 4jan, as in thread I had 1x4*.

until half a month ago i had:
3x4* green mana
1x4* crit red and 1x4* mana red.

now i have:
1x mana blue
3x mana green
2x crit dark
1x crit + 1x mana holy
2x crit + 2 mana red

see here when luck popped up

also my desperation here:



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imo, its all random… its just luck… no data worth keeping on them…

i prefer going to random.org and rolling till i get number 5 from 1to10… and see my odds…

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(post withdrawn by author, will be automatically deleted in 24 hours unless flagged)

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Holy that’s a lot of troop summons! Congrats on all the 4*!

That is in beta, they give you a bunch of gem to test some stuff. Maybe if I win the lottery I’d do it in the main game

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And I charted tc20 about 3 or 4 months ago with a 65, 25, 10 drop including 4 prime 5*s.

But that it legitimate to raise the10% chance, separately and not in the tc20 discussion where it would be drowned out.

#Ivy. In fact, after getting good results from tc20, I posted it. And, yes, I am tracking every epic troop token. It will be awhile since I do not buy epic troop tokens.

The outcomes of random tests (like drawing 4* troops) often don’t match our intuition about what “should” happen very well.

Here’s a graph of different possible outcomes of doing 200 draws for 4* troops, if 10% probability of success is the correct number for a single draw:

Screenshot_20190704-084404_Excel

What you can see is that the average, or “expected” outcome of 20 troops will happen less than 10% of the time that we do 200 draws. 16 is actually almost as probable an outcome as 20, and numbers between 5 and 35 would not be particularly surprising.

We have to do a great many draws before the average outcome starts having a particularly high probability. And that is why it is quite hard to verify a random system like this with only a few hundred (or even a few thousand) samples.

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ty. Interesting and useful.

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I I feel your pain, I had the same problem for months but then in back-to-back days I got both Heroes of the month, June’s and July’s, along with two other 5*. Now my big problem is leveling Them up

I got 3 epic troops from tokens in a row. Maybe that will explain, that someone else won’t get any from 300 pulls. Together the given odds are right :wink:

I have been playing over 1 year on main, 9 months on well more than 2 alts. I do not think that the odds to draw a 4* troop is any where near 10% (at least not for ANY of my accounts)

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No need to tattle. He’s not posting pics or vids from beta.

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